fastest 5% reductions

The fastest 5% of boys teams (n = 100) through 2010 consist of: 

-70% Southern Section teams

-53 unique schools

-61% d. 1 teams & 28% d. 2 teams

-51% from the years 2008 - 2010

-6% each from Royal (S.S., d. 1), Loyola (S.S., d. 1 & d. 2) & Jesuit (S.J.S., d. 2)

The fastest 5% of girls teams (n = 100) through 2010 consist of: 

-75% Southern Section teams

-49 unique schools

-59% d. 1 teams & 26% d. 2 teams

-55% from years 2008 - 2010

-5% each from Saugus (S.S., d. 1 & d. 2) & Torrey Pines (S.D.S., d. 1)

The fastest 5% of boys individuals (n = 888) through 2010 consist of: 

-51% Southern Section individuals

-46% division 1 individuals

-63% 12th graders

-over 31% by runners from the years 2008 - 2010

-nearly 2,4% by runners from Dana Hills (S.S., d. 1)

The fastest 5% of girls individuals (n = 871) through 2010 consist of: 

-50% Southern Section individuals

-41% division 1 individuals

-over 39% 12th graders

-nearly 34% by runners from years 2008 - 2010

-nearly 3,6% by runners from Saugus (S.S., d. 1 & d. 2)

winning margins for teams (by team-time)

The median margin between the fastest & 2nd fastest team-times at the California State Cross-Country Meet is remarkably stable between divisions and sexes. 7 of the 10 divisions have winning margins between 0:44 & 0:58, and only one is above 1:08.

Also, it is surprising how substantial the winning margin is. The tightest, d. 3 boys, is 0:44, while the margin for d. 5 girls is fully 1:45.

After the fastest team-times, the margins are much closer. The tightest differences, between 9th & 10th in boys d. 1 and 5th & 6th in d. 2, is only 0:07, and the overall median in boys d. 1 and boys d. 3 is only 0:18.

With the exception of boys and girls division 2, the margins of the final 2 - 4 places are in most cases very large. It is likely that this is because each division except division 2 has one or more weak sections associated with it.

	ov'll d. 1	ov'll d. 2	ov'll d. 3	ov'll d. 4	ov'll d. 5		ov'll d. 1	ov'll d. 2	ov'll d. 3	ov'll d. 4	ov'll d. 5
1-2	00:00:52	00:00:57	00:00:44	00:00:49	00:01:05		00:00:58	00:01:08	00:00:46	00:00:51	00:01:45
2-3	00:00:14	00:00:24	00:00:24	00:00:56	00:00:34		00:00:53	00:00:32	00:01:01	00:01:10	00:01:11
3-4	00:00:18	00:00:22	00:00:15	00:00:18	00:00:23		00:00:19	00:00:25	00:00:32	00:00:37	00:00:47
4-5	00:00:16	00:00:23	00:00:11	00:00:15	00:00:23		00:00:33	00:00:36	00:00:45	00:00:25	00:01:23
5-6	00:00:14	00:00:07	00:00:13	00:00:13	00:00:19		00:00:19	00:00:27	00:00:19	00:00:24	00:00:25
6-7	00:00:08	00:00:12	00:00:13	00:00:20	00:00:11		00:00:28	00:00:21	00:00:19	00:00:19	00:00:50
7-8	00:00:17	00:00:13	00:00:18	00:00:15	00:00:19		00:00:28	00:00:29	00:00:18	00:00:32	00:00:35
8-9	00:00:16	00:00:11	00:00:13	00:00:19	00:00:35		00:00:09	00:00:26	00:00:27	00:00:20	00:00:34
9-10	00:00:07	00:00:12	00:00:16	00:00:23	00:00:38		00:00:23	00:00:26	00:00:22	00:00:16	00:00:35
10-11	00:00:10	00:00:17	00:00:17	00:00:19	00:00:51		00:00:27	00:00:17	00:00:22	00:00:32	00:00:47
11-12	00:00:18	00:00:21	00:00:23	00:00:14	00:01:02		00:00:15	00:00:21	00:00:35	00:00:29	00:00:25
12-13	00:00:36	00:00:17	00:00:16	00:00:19	00:00:39		00:00:21	00:00:36	00:00:40	00:00:26	00:01:31
13-14	00:00:24	00:00:20	00:00:24	00:00:20	00:00:51		00:00:22	00:00:30	00:00:58	00:00:25	00:00:54
14-15	00:00:12	00:00:22	00:01:04	00:00:26	00:00:38		00:00:22	00:00:19	00:01:02	00:00:34	00:01:13
15-16	00:00:17	00:00:17	00:00:13	00:00:32	00:00:21		00:00:35	00:00:15	00:00:26	00:00:46	00:00:40
16-17	00:00:24	00:00:23	00:00:33	00:00:22	00:00:59		00:00:48	00:00:23	00:00:42	00:00:35	00:00:52
17-18	00:00:23	00:00:11	00:00:12	00:00:22	00:01:12		00:00:53	00:00:18	00:00:29	00:00:41	00:01:20
18-19	00:00:15	00:00:32	00:00:35	00:00:13	00:01:06		00:00:32	00:00:25	00:00:27	00:00:47	00:02:20
19-20	00:00:31	00:00:25	00:00:52	00:00:14	00:01:11		00:01:06	00:01:14	00:00:30	00:00:46	00:09:32
20-21	00:00:21	00:00:34	00:00:17	00:00:32	00:01:03		00:00:53	00:00:54	00:00:41	00:00:41	00:03:52
21-22	00:01:27	00:00:32	00:00:23	00:01:27	00:01:18		00:00:45	00:00:44	00:01:02	00:01:35	00:17:33
22-23	00:02:52	00:00:54	00:01:33	00:01:13			00:02:08	00:01:43	00:02:36	00:02:49
23-24	00:03:04		00:08:30	00:02:54			00:19:41	00:01:01	00:06:36	00:11:22
24-25	00:02:22						00:18:20	00:00:42
median	00:00:18	00:00:21	00:00:18	00:00:20	00:00:39		00:00:33	00:00:28	00:00:35	00:00:35	00:00:54
sigma	00:00:52	00:00:13	00:01:43	00:00:36	00:00:21		00:05:12	00:00:22	00:01:19	00:02:17	00:04:01
1.96	00:01:59	00:00:46	00:03:39	00:01:31	00:01:19		00:10:45	00:01:10	00:03:10	00:05:04	00:08:46

relative performance of individuals by class

It is most common for a girl to qualify for the California State Cross-Country Meet only as a senior (19%), only as a sophomore (15%) or only as a junior (14%). It is most rare for a girl to qualify in 9th & 12th (0,8%); 9th, 11th & 12th (1,2%) & 9th, 10th & 12th (1,3%).

Nearly 60% of girls run only one year, over 23% run two years, nearly 12% run 3 years, and 5,6% run all four years. Only 46,5% of girls manage to qualify as seniors.

The fastest group is those who qualify 9th - 12th grade. This group falls well under the median for each grade. 2nd fastest is the those who qualify 10th - 12th. Though slower than the 9th - 12th group, they do run faster than the median at each grade level. The slowest group, relative to class median, are those who run only 1 year. 

			9	10	11	12
grade	girls	%
9	860	11.47%	00:21:31
10	1127	15.02%		00:21:31
11	1058	14.10%			00:21:36
12	1431	19.08%				00:21:13
9, 10	298	3.97%	00:21:01	00:20:54
9, 11	105	1.40%	00:20:57		00:20:48
9, 12	62	0.83%	00:21:09			00:20:44
10, 11	371	4.95%		00:20:45	00:20:44
10, 12	190	2.53%		00:20:51		00:20:49
11, 12	712	9.49%			00:20:45	00:20:27
9, 10, 11	191	2.55%	00:20:35	00:20:21	00:20:31
9, 10, 12	97	1.29%	00:20:33	00:20:16		00:20:30
9, 11, 12	89	1.19%	00:20:48		00:20:15	00:20:11
10, 11, 12	488	6.51%		00:20:29	00:20:02	00:19:58
9, 10, 11, 12	422	5.63%	00:20:15	00:19:53	00:19:46	00:19:43
unknown	34
sum	7501		00:20:51	00:20:42	00:20:34	00:20:30

1-year	4476	59.67%
2-year	1738	23.17%
3-year	865	11.53%
4-year	422	5.63%
ending 12th		46.54%

It is most common for a boy to qualify for the California State Cross-Country Meet only in 12th grade (33%), only in 11th (17%), and 11th - 12th (17%). It is most rare for a boy to qualify 9th & 11th (0,4%) 9th, 10th & 12th (0,4%), or 9th & 12th (0,4%). Over 62% of boys run only one year, nearly 25% run two years, a bit over 10% run 3 years, and only 3% run all four years. Over 65% manage to qualify as seniors.

As with the girls, the fastest group is those who qualify 9th - 12th grade. This group falls well under the median for each grade. 2nd fastest is the those who qualify 10th - 12th. Though slower than the 9th - 12th group, they do run faster than the median at each grade level. The slowest group, relative to class median, are those who run only 1 year.

note: The state meet began in 1987. To ensure fairness, I did not begin counting qualifiers until 1990 because that was the first year that all qualifiers had a chance to toe the line as freshmen. I also don't collect data for the 3 years prior to the current year for the same reason. As such, the below data reflects results from 1990 - current year -3. A substantial flaw in the below is that the results for 1990 d. 4 b & g have remained elusive.

note: Those times in bold indicate that they are faster than the median for the class.

			9	10	11	12
grade	boys	%
9	221	2.72%	00:18:41
10	752	9.25%		00:17:56
11	1403	17.25%			00:17:36
12	2688	33.05%				00:17:16
9, 10	78	0.96%	00:18:16	00:17:52
9, 11	29	0.36%	00:18:03		00:17:37
9, 12	35	0.43%	00:18:03			00:17:00
10, 11	283	3.48%		00:17:34	00:17:09
10, 12	208	2.56%		00:17:28		00:16:48
11, 12	1368	16.82%			00:17:09	00:16:51
9, 10, 11	60	0.74%	00:17:38	00:17:08	00:17:02
9, 10, 12	33	0.41%	00:17:53	00:17:33		00:16:56
9, 11, 12	52	0.64%	00:18:13		00:17:04	00:16:52
10, 11, 12	683	8.40%		00:17:11	00:16:44	00:16:32
9, 10, 11, 12	241	2.96%	00:17:24	00:16:47	00:16:28	00:16:21
unknown	48
sum	8134		00:17:53	00:17:24	00:17:08	00:16:56

1-year	5064	62.26%
2-year	2001	24.60%
3-year	828	10.18%
4-year	241	2.96%
ending 12th		65.26%

relative strength of each section

Though it is taken for granted that the California State Cross-Country Meet is dominated by the Southern Section (S.S.) and by division 1 teams, to my knowledge that dominance has never been quantified. The same is true of other sections and divisions. In the below, I have quantified the relative strength of each section and division, both inter- and intra-divisional.

In the 1st & 3rd columns, I compared the median for each section/division to the overall median and standard deviation* (1:25:51 & 0:04:27 for boys,  1:42:03 & 0:04:41 for the girls). This gave a z-score that shows the relative strength of each section/division across all divisions. On the boys side, of those divisions with sections faster than the overall median, d. 1 has 6 representatives, d. 2 has 5, d. 3 has 4, d. 4 has 1 and d. 5 has none. On the girls side, d. 1 and 2 have 5, d. 3 has 3, d. 4 has 1 and div. 5 has none.

In the 2nd & 4th columns, I compared the median for each section/division to the median and standard deviation* within each division. This shows the relative strength of sections/divisions within divisions.

Columns 1 & 3 show that, at the inter-divisional level, the (S.S.) division 1 boys & girls (boys z = -1.083, girls z = -1.261) dominate. When compared to teams only within divisions, S.S. d. 1 still comes out stronger than everyone else, but less so. The S.S.'s relative strength becomes obvious using this 2nd metric. Only North Coast Section (N.C.S.) d. 5 girls interrupt total S.S. dominance of the top 5 for each sex.

S.S. d. 1 boys median team-time is 1:20:43. This puts it fully 2,2% (1:45) faster than the 2nd fastest median, that of the San Diego Section (S.D.S.) d. 1 (1:22:28). S.S. d. 1 girls median is 1:36:09 compared to 1:37:53 (1,8% faster) for the 2nd fastest group, S.D.S. d. 1.

Outside of the S.S., section strength is fairly evenly spread. On the boys side, of the 15 sections/divisions performing  faster than the intra-divisional median, the N.C.S. has 3, Central Coast Section (C.C.S.), S.D.S. & Central Section (C.S.) have 2 and the Sac-Joaquin Section has 1. On the girls side, of the 11 sections/divisions performing faster than the intra-divisional median, the N.C.S. has 3, S.D.S. has 2, and the C.C.S. 1.

*because California State Cross-Country results are so skewed to the right of the curve, the mean is not of much use. I use medians for this reason. I also base the standard deviation ("sigma") on the median. This is to say that I determine outliers by eliminating times from the mean until it and the median are as close to equal as possible. Occasionally this means eliminating times on the left side of the curve, but nearly always it means eliminating those on the right side.

boys sec. (d.) z-score boys sec. (d.) z-score girls sec. (d.) z-score girls sec. (d.) z-score S.S. (1) -1.083 S.S. (1) -0.844 S.S. (1) -1.261 S.S. (1) -0.878 S.D.S. (1) -0.702 S.S. (5) -0.700 S.D.S. (1) -0.892 S.S. (4) -0.735 S.S. (2) -0.699 S.S. (3) -0.603 S.S. (2) -0.848 N.C.S. (5) -0.675 C.S. (1) -0.584 S.S. (4) -0.600 S.S. (3) -0.573 S.S. (2) -0.618 S.J.S. (2) -0.561 S.S. (2) -0.562 N.C.S. (3) -0.509 S.S. (3) -0.526 S.S. (3) -0.497 N.C.S. (5) -0.417 S.D.S. (2) -0.445 S.D.S. (1) -0.455 S.J.S. (1) -0.429 C.C.S. (3) -0.345 C.S. (1) -0.356 N.C.S. (3) -0.453 C.C.S. (1) -0.415 S.J.S. (2) -0.312 N.C.S. (2) -0.345 S.S. (5) -0.373 S.D.S. (2) -0.403 S.D.S. (1) -0.300 C.C.S. (2) -0.235 C.C.S. (5) -0.156 l.A.C.S. (1) -0.378 N.C.S. (3) -0.221 S.S. (4) -0.135 N.C.S. (4) -0.120 N.C.S. (2) -0.364 C.S. (4) -0.208 N.C.S. (1) -0.135 S.D.S. (2) -0.114 N.C.S. (1) -0.347 N.C.S. (4) -0.191 S.J.S. (1) -0.118 N.C.S. (2) 0.011 C.C.S. (3) -0.318 C.S. (1) -0.131 C.C.S. (3) -0.073 C.C.S. (3) 0.042 C.C.S. (2) -0.297 C.C.S. (4) -0.089 l.A.C.S. (1) -0.057 C.C.S. (4) 0.048 N.C.S. (3) -0.232 S.D.S. (2) -0.026 S.J.S. (2) -0.057 C.C.S. (2) 0.149 S.S. (4) -0.148 N.C.S. (2) 0.045 S.D.S. (3) 0.021 S.D.S. (3) 0.150 S.D.S. (3) -0.016 S.J.S. (1) 0.089 C.C.S. (1) 0.030 C.S. (1) 0.159 C.S. (2) 0.037 S.D.S. (3) 0.091 S.J.S. (3) 0.240 N.S. (5) 0.252 C.S. (4) 0.125 C.C.S. (1) 0.110 N.C.S. (5) 0.378 S.J.S. (2) 0.373 N.C.S. (4) 0.137 C.C.S. (5) 0.135 N.C.S. (4) 0.385 S.J.S. (4) 0.381 C.C.S. (4) 0.208 l.A.C.S. (1) 0.163 C.C.S. (4) 0.527 S.J.S. (3) 0.398 S.J.S. (3) 0.280 C.C.S. (2) 0.166 N.S. (2) 0.698 N.C.S. (1) 0.412 S.S. (5) 0.305 N.C.S. (1) 0.207 N.S. (3) 0.705 S.J.S. (1) 0.433 N.S. (2) 0.527 C.S. (5) 0.354 S.S. (5) 0.744 N.S. (4) 0.453 N.S. (4) 0.578 S.D.S. (5) 0.387 S.J.S. (4) 0.808 l.A.C.S. (1) 0.502 N.S. (3) 0.618 S.J.S. (3) 0.519 N.S. (4) 0.869 C.C.S. (1) 0.602 C.S. (3) 0.623 S.J.S. (4) 0.577 C.S. (2) 0.898 S.D.S. (4) 0.659 S.J.S. (4) 0.673 N.S. (4) 0.578 S.F.C.S. (1) 0.994 N.S. (3) 0.926 N.C.S. (5) 0.721 C.S. (2) 0.772 C.C.S. (5) 1.008 C.S. (5) 0.974 O.C.S. (1) 0.731 S.D.S. (4) 0.970 S.D.S. (4) 1.044 N.S. (2) 1.318 S.F.C.S. (1) 0.859 N.S. (3) 1.007 C.S. (3) 1.325 C.S. (4) 1.337 S.D.S. (4) 0.946 C.S. (3) 1.015 N.S. (5) 1.503 S.D.S. (5) 1.508 C.C.S. (5) 1.532 N.S. (5) 1.334 C.S. (4) 1.617 C.S. (2) 1.568 C.S. (5) 1.853 N.S. (2) 1.657 O.C.S. (1) 2.269 C.S. (3) 1.630 S.D.S. (5) 1.902 O.C.S. (1) 1.743 C.S. (5) 2.379 S.F.C.S. (1) 1.706 N.S. (5) 3.293 S.J.S. (5) 1.745 S.D.S. (5) 3.027 S.J.S. (5) 2.553 S.J.S. (5) 3.896 S.F.C.S. (1) 1.926 S.J.S. (5) 4.295 O.C.S. (1) 3.168